Profit Taking Before Two Rate Decisions

The major U.S stock indices closed down for the first time in four sessions yesterday, finishing the day with an average loss of 0.3%. Even though yesterday’s economic results added to the selling pressure, the negative session was mainly caused due to profit taking, prior to the NFP result scheduled to be released tomorrow.

ADP employment disappointed investors during pre-market hours, coming out worse than expected. The report showed that the private job market had contracted at a higher rate than the expected number of -335k, coming out at -371k. The ADP figure was closely watched by investors as it is thought to predict the important NFP numbers. To date analysts are expecting the NFP figure to show that the economy shredded -330k jobs, compared to last month’s -467k. Even though the number still reflects a dour economy, any number less than last month’s figure will could show that there is a dramatic change in employment.

By taking a glance at the following chart one can see that last month’s figure showed a dramatic improvement compared to the NFP’s low at the start of the year. A better than expected result could have an enormous impact on sentiment, driving the indices to higher ground.

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In addition to the disappointing ADP result, Non-Manufacturing ISM fell for the first time since March, showing a 46.4 figure. The result surprised investors, especially as recent economic data has shown a dramatic improvement in the sector.

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